January 2012 Newsletter Reprint
We’re reprinting the January Kingdom Calling Newsletter today so that it’s easier to link back to in the future. If you’re not receiving the Monthly Kingdom Calling Newsletter, sign up to the right above the RED “Get Video Now” Button.
Year in Review
Today, we’ll review our predictions from a year ago. But first, I wanted to give you a peak behind the curtain of my writings here at Kingdom Calling.
I’ve had difficulty deciding what to put in this month’s newsletter mostly because I have 7 – 10 topics I want to write about right now. We’ve got a newsletter and blog and I don’t have a clear delineation between the types of content for each. It seems most companies on the web use a free blog in order to entice you into buying their newsletter. Our model is different. It’s all free. I try to pass on as much of my thoughts on stewardship and the economy as well as occasionally including writings on what the Lord is showing &/or teaching me.
Of course, we save the best ideas and specific strategies for those who are actually going through either the Your Fruitful Tree or The Steward’s Calling processes. I will say that the time to prepare for great changes is running short, and recommend you email me back for a free consultation if you haven’t done so.
We’re approaching a thousand of you who receive this, but experience has taught me that most of you will choose to do nothing (it is after all a bit bothersome to send an email and couldn’t it wait till tomorrow?) And so, even though the information is useless without action, I hope to help the majority of you who won’t respond the best that I can with free information whether through these newsletters or our blog posts.
For instance, I saw an urgent need to warn as many as possible about the increasing economic troubles coming in August and thus sent a newsletter to warn you of what was coming (later reprinted in this blog post.) The Lord’s timing was perfect as the sovereign debt crises and markets have gone absolutely nuts ever since. As I write this, we’re in a bit of a holiday calm as we get every year, but make no mistake, that warning is just as real now as it was then.
So let me get on with reviewing last year’s predictions and then give some ideas of pieces I hope to get onto the blog soon and maybe link a few recent pieces you might have missed.
REVIEWING MY 2011 PREDICTIONS
Looking back over last year’s predictions, I see that I was as uncomfortable predicting 2011 as I am now predicting 2012. I spent 2 pages (on the word doc used to create the newsletter) basically saying a number of things could go in different directions before finally stepping out there and taking some stabs at what would happen. Looks like I guessed pretty well overall with 4 correct, 2 wrong & 2 that I’m calling a push. So here are the predictions made with commentary on how I did…
Prediction: “I will predict that we will end the year with much higher interest rates.”
Result: WRONG… Interest rates fell in the US. However, I was somewhat correct in that interest rates did dramatically rise in many countries around the world. I did say it was an open questions whether the world markets would focus on the European debt implosion or the US state, city, & county debt implosion. While there were a few headline defaults in the US (Harrisburg, PA; Jefferson County, AL; & the Detroit situation come to mind), the really big dominos haven’t fallen yet. Meanwhile, the Problem in Europe dominated headlines at the end of 2012 and interest rates rose to unsupportable levels in those countries. This should probably be a PUSH because the spirit of it was correct and the markets are showing that they will not let debt problems stand much longer without a reckoning. Still, the focus hasn’t yet come to the US where most readers reside. Keep in mind, when the focus gets here, you’ll be financially behind the eight ball. Things will move very quickly then.
Prediction: “I think we’ll see dramatic swings in the stock market. (it’s hard to say whether the money printing can make it higher a year from now, but it’s bound to be bumpy ride.)”
Result: CORRECT… The stock market was extremely volatile, but ended flat on the year.
Prediction: “Real estate will be much lower.”
Result: WRONG… There were certainly portions of the extremely large and diverse US real estate market that were significantly down, but others were slightly up and over all, the real estate market was flat.
Prediction: “Commodities will be higher a year from now, but again, a wild ride could be in store.”
Result: PARTIALLY CORRECT… Commodity prices were higher most of the year, but swooned at the end (wild ride was dead on) to end up flat.
Prediction: “Gold and silver will be much higher (they benefit whether attention is on the US or Europe).”
Result: PARTIALLY CORRECT… Both metals were up by large margins over the course of the year and fell back at the end. Gold prices had their 11th straight year of increase (which is unprecedented in any market in history). The 10% gain was smaller than the average gain of the last decades, but still one of the best holdings you could have owned in 2011. Silver ended down 9% on the year after having experienced a massive gain through the first half of the year (going from $30 to $50 and back down below $30). Silver has already recouped the small loss of 2011 in the first two weeks of 2012. Both metals did much better during the year if measured in most other currencies.
Prediction: “Emerging markets will experience a crash.”
Result: CORRECT… Emerging markets around the world crashed decisively in 2011. Although the US stock market went nowhere in 2011 while causing mild heart attacks the whole way, it was one of the best stock markets to be in during 2011.
Prediction: “Oil will be higher.”
Result: CORRECT… The cost of oil ended up for the year, although not nearly as far up as it was for most of 2011.
Prediction: “Food costs will be considerably higher.”
Result: CORRECT… The cost of food rose and I have no doubt that your family noticed this at the grocery store and perhaps at your favorite restaurant.
Looking back, I feel pretty good about these predictions since trying to guess where a market will be at some exact point in time in the future is really just gambling. No one can predict such things with any degree of accuracy, so I feel this was a pretty successful effort.
In February, I’ll probably try to see how well I can do for 2012. I do feel certain that this year will be incredibly tumultuous in the markets.
ON THE BLOG
I’m hoping that if I give you some ideas on some things I’d like to write, it will force me to actually put them to paper, so here’s few ideas that have been rattling around in my head and could end up on the blog in the coming weeks and months…
1) The Families of God
2) Sheppard of the North Parable
3) The Value in Celebrating Christmas vs The 3 Main Feasts Established by God
4) Is Ben Bernanke Planning to Devalue the US Dollar by 40%?
5) Standing Exposed before God
6) Hearing God
7) What is the Lord Doing in our Day?
There is also a plan to come back to The Seed writings, so those will probably be hitting the blog in some form or fashion as the details and changes are worked out.
If you’re not receiving the blog posts by email or RSS, you can sign up for them free HERE.
Recently, we’ve been running a huge series of Economic Update Videos as we do periodically. I believe there are 3 still to arrive on the blog over the next week. (We typically post on a M, W, F schedule.)
I also wanted to point out a couple Spiritual writings recently added…
2) Spend Thanksgiving with Your Father – This really had nothing to do with Thanksgiving, and is about something my 15 month old son taught me.
I hope you enjoyed this newsletter. I do really appreciate your reading it. As always, you can reach out and say Hi by replying to this email.
Have a great 2012!
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